Double-check the influencer.

Example: a careful plus-number take (game is final)

Example · NE @ SEA (final SEA 13–10)

Patriots +3.5 at Seattle. Market opened SEA -3 and hasn't really moved. Public is already 70% on the Seahawks because it's a night game in the northwest. New England's offensive line vs Seattle's front is the actual game. I'm on the plus number, not the moneyline. If it ticks to +3 I still want it; if it goes +4 I wait.

CHARGERS -10 IS FREE

Example · ARI @ LAC

LISTEN. Chargers minus ten. Herbert at home, Cardinals are a dumpster, this is a lock of the century. Tail or fade I don't care but don't come back to me broke. Also throw in Over 47 and Best anytime because we eating. 12-1 last week trust the process.

Why the Chiefs–Broncos total looks high

Example · DEN @ KC

All-22 from Denver's last two preseason tapes: they want to live in 12 personnel and steal clock. Kansas City's explosive rate in the preseason was a mirage — backup corners and clean pockets. Monday night, outdoor, week 1 rust. I want under 43.5. If it drops to 42 I pass. Side is a coin flip; I'm not touching Chiefs -3.

$10 to $1,400 week 1 ladder

Example · Week 1 slate

SEA ML, DET -7, PHI -5.5, LAC -10, KC ML, DAL -3, CIN ML, Over on Bucs/Bengals. Ten bucks. If you not on this you hate money. Last year this same video hit 6 of 8 we were so close.

Delayed game — why he’s sitting it out

Example · SMU @ FSU

Game is delayed. I'm off the side. Delay + humid Tallahassee night is an under spot if they actually kick, but I'm not guessing a restart time. Live total only, and only after we see the first two drives. If they postpone, void and move on. Never bet a delay with a pregame number.

Cubs–Brewers: it’s about the pitcher

Example · CHC @ MIL

Skip the national narrative. Milwaukee's starter has a 2.9 xFIP at home at night, Cubs lineup is 8th in wOBA vs RHP this stretch. I want Brewers first five and under the total if it's 8 or higher. Full-game moneyline is a different bet because of that bullpen. I am not on the run line.